Natural Gas

Today in Energy

Recent Today in Energy analysis of natural gas markets is available on the EIA website.

Market Highlights:

Prices

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 6 cents from $2.39 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Thursday to $2.45/MMBtu yesterday.
• Henry Hub futures price: The July 2024 NYMEX contract expired yesterday at $2.628/MMBtu, down 11.3 cents from last Thursday. The August 2024 NYMEX contract price decreased to $2.745/MMBtu, down 10.9 cents from last Thursday to yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging August 2024 through July 2025 futures contracts declined 8.5 cents to $3.268/MMBtu.
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot price changes at most locations were mixed this report week (Thursday, June 20, to Wednesday, June 26). Price changes ranged from a decrease of 69 cents at the Waha Hub to an increase of 95 cents at PG&E Citygate.
• Prices in the Northeast decreased this week as pipeline maintenance concluded and as extreme heat subsided at the end of the report week. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price fell 38 cents from $2.40/MMBtu last Thursday to $2.02/MMBtu yesterday. Maintenance on the Algonquin Gas Transmission pipeline that began last week concluded this report week. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, the price decreased 36 cents from $2.24/MMBtu last Thursday to $1.88/MMBtu yesterday. Average temperatures in the New York-Central Park Area increased 6°F this report week to an average of 81°F, resulting in an increase of 44 cooling degree days (CDD) to 117 CDDs, 51 more CDDs than normal. The higher-than-normal weekly average temperatures were caused by extreme heat in the U.S. Midwest and East that drove average temperatures in the New York-Central Park Area to an intraweek high of 85°F on Friday, 11°F higher than normal. Temperatures moderated at the end of the report week to temperatures that were closer to normal. Consumption of natural gas in the electric power sector in the Northeast increased 11% (1.2 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]) this week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.
• Prices in the West increased this report week driven by increased natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California increased 69 cents from $1.78/MMBtu last Thursday to $2.47/MMBtu yesterday. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 94 cents from $2.10/MMBtu last Thursday to $3.04/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, rose 46 cents from $1.62/MMBtu last Thursday to $2.08/MMBtu yesterday. Average temperatures in the Riverside Area, inland of Los Angeles, increased 8°F this week to 81°F, resulting in an increase of 50 CDDs to 110 CDDs, which is 42 CDDs more than normal. Consumption of natural gas in the electric power sector in the Western region increased 38% (1.4 Bcf/d) this week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, which was driven by a 77% (0.8 Bcf/d) increase in consumption in the electric power sector in California.
• The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, decreased 69 cents from $0.71/MMBtu last Thursday to $0.02/MMBtu yesterday. The Waha price fell below zero again this report week, reaching an intraweek low of -$1.04/MMBtu on Monday. Maintenance on the El Paso Natural Gas pipeline that moves natural gas westbound from West Texas resulted in further reductions to pipeline takeaway capacity at multiple locations on June 24 and June 25.

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• International futures prices: International natural gas futures price changes were mixed this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia increased 25 cents to a weekly average of $12.61/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands decreased 27 cents to a weekly average of $10.75/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending June 28, 2023), the prices were $11.96/MMBtu in East Asia and $10.72/MMBtu at TTF.
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 11 cents/MMBtu, averaging $7.08/MMBtu for the week ending June 26. Ethane prices fell 12% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel decreased 3%, narrowing the ethane premium to natural gas by 9%. The ethylene spot price rose 1% week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane increased 6%. Propane prices increased 1%, while Brent crude oil prices increased 2% week over week. The propane discount to crude oil increased 3% for the week. Normal butane prices rose 3%, isobutane prices fell 6%, and natural gasoline prices rose 2%.

Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 0.1% (0.1 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 0.3% (0.3 Bcf/d) to average 100.7 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada decreased by 4.9% (0.3 Bcf/d) from last week.
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 5.7% (4.1 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, driven by an increase in the electric power sector. Natural gas consumed for power generation climbed by 10.7% (4.4 Bcf/d) week over week as extreme heat spread across the eastern United States. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 0.6% (0.1 Bcf/d), and residential and commercial sector consumption declined by 1.8% (0.2 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 3.5% (0.2 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 12.2 Bcf/d, or 0.4 Bcf/d lower than last week.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals decreased 0.4 Bcf/d from last week to 12.2 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 5.3% (0.4 Bcf/d) to 7.2 Bcf/d, and natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas decreased 0.3% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) to 3.8 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged at 1.2 Bcf/d.
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-nine LNG vessels (nine from Sabine Pass, five from Freeport, four each from Cameron and Corpus Christi, three each from Calcasieu Pass and Cove Point, and one from Elba Island) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 105 Bcf departed the United States between June 20 and June 26, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, June 18, the natural gas rig count remained unchanged from a week ago at 98 rigs. The Haynesville added one rig, while one rig was dropped among unidentified producing regions. The number of oil-directed rigs decreased by 3 rigs from a week ago to 485 rigs. The Cana Woodford and the Williston each added one rig. The Ardmore Woodford, Eagle Ford, and Permian each dropped one rig, and two rigs were dropped among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 5 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 588 rigs, 94 fewer rigs than last year at this time.

Other Market Drivers

• On June 11, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission authorized the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) to begin operations. MVP delivers natural gas from Wetzel County, West Virginia, to an interconnection with Transcontinental Gas Pipeline’s (Transco) compressor station 165 in Pittsylvania County, Virginia. On June 27, natural gas deliveries to the Transco interconnection totaled nearly 0.7 Bcf/d.

Storage

• Net injections into storage totaled 52 Bcf for the week ending June 21, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 85 Bcf and last year's net injections of 81 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,097 Bcf, which is 528 Bcf (21%) more than the five-year average and 314 Bcf (11%) more than last year at this time.
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 32 Bcf to 65 Bcf, with a median estimate of 55 Bcf.
• The average rate of injections into storage is 11% lower than the five-year average so far in the refill season (April through October). If the rate of injections into storage matched the five-year average of 8.7 Bcf/d for the remainder of the refill season, the total inventory would be 4,240 Bcf on October 31, which is 528 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 3,712 Bcf for that time of year.

See also:

• Natural Gas Analysis Reports
• Short-Term Energy Outlook