Natural Gas

Today in Energy

Recent Today in Energy analysis of natural gas markets is available on the EIA website.

Market Highlights:

Prices

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price fell 39 cents from $2.37 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.98/MMBtu yesterday. The last time the Henry Hub price was below $2.00/MMBtu in July was in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Henry Hub futures price: The price of the August 2024 NYMEX contract decreased 29.4 cents, from $2.329/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.035/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging August 2024 through July 2025 futures contracts declined 17.5 cents to $2.827/MMBtu.
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices decreased at all major pricing hubs this report week (Wednesday, July 10, to Wednesday, July 17). Price decreases ranged from $1.21 at the Waha Hub to 3 cents at Algonquin Citygate.
• Prices in the Northeast decreased this report week. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price fell 3 cents from $1.93/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.90/MMBtu yesterday after rising to an intraweek high of $4.03/MMBtu on Tuesday. Algonquin Gas Transmission (AGT) lifted an operational flow order effective today that had been issued on July 16 requiring all natural gas deliveries and receipts be balanced to maintain operational integrity of the pipeline system. In addition, even though maintenance on AGT beginning July 17 resulted in reduced capacity at multiple points along the pipeline system transporting natural gas to New England, current nominations are within operational capacities. The price at Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus, near Appalachia region production activities, decreased 39 cents from $1.55/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.16/MMBtu yesterday.
• Prices fell across Texas this report week. At the Houston Ship Channel, the price declined 31 cents from $1.95/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.64/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas consumption in Texas was essentially unchanged this report week, averaging 12.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights; however, feedgas demand from liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals in Texas decreased 28% (0.9 Bcf/d) this week (see Liquefied Natural Gas section below). The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, decreased $1.21 from $1.54/MMBtu last Wednesday to $0.33/MMBtu yesterday. The Waha Hub traded $1.65 below the Henry Hub price yesterday, compared with last Wednesday when it traded 83 cents below the Henry Hub price.
• Prices on the West Coast decreased this report week. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell 24 cents from $3.40/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.16/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 28 cents from $3.03/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.75/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures across California declined this report week. In the Sacramento Area, the average temperature declined from 89°F at the start of the report week to an average of 73°F at the end of the report week, resulting in 105 cooling degree days (CDD) for the week, 28 fewer CDDs than last week. In the Riverside Area, east of Los Angeles, temperatures averaged 81°F this report week, resulting in 111 CDDS, 12 fewer CDDs than last week. Natural gas consumption in California decreased 5% (0.3 Bcf/d), according to S&P Global Commodity Insights, which was driven by a 16% (0.4 Bcf/d) decline in consumption in the electric power sector. At Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, the price fell 11 cents from $1.98/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.87/MMBtu yesterday.

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• International futures prices: International natural gas futures price changes were mixed this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for LNG cargoes in East Asia decreased 12 cents to a weekly average of $12.28/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands increased 4 cents to a weekly average of $10.16/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending July 19, 2023), the prices were $11.22/MMBtu in East Asia and $8.67/MMBtu at TTF.
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 16 cents/MMBtu, averaging $7.03/MMBtu for the week ending July 17. Ethane prices rose 5% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel fell 6%, widening the ethane premium to natural gas by 33%. The ethylene spot price rose 7% week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane rose 7%. Propane prices decreased 3%, while Brent crude oil prices decreased 1% week over week. The propane discount to crude oil increased 2% for the week. Normal butane prices fell 2%, isobutane prices fell 10%, and natural gasoline prices fell 1%.

Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 0.4% (0.4 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 0.1% (0.2 Bcf/d) to average 101.8 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada decreased by 7.9% (0.6 Bcf/d) from last week.
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 1.6% (1.2 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed for power generation increased by 2.2% (1.1 Bcf/d) week over week. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 0.6% (0.1 Bcf/d), while residential and commercial sector consumption increased by 3.9% (0.3 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 0.3% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 11.1 Bcf/d, or 0.8 Bcf/d lower than last week.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals decreased 0.8 Bcf/d from last week to 11.1 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased by 1.3% (0.1 Bcf/d) to 7.8 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas decreased 27.9% (0.9 Bcf/d) to 2.2 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast decreased slightly (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) to 1.1 Bcf/d.
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty LNG vessels (seven from Sabine Pass, four from Corpus Christi, three each from Calcasieu Pass and Cameron, two from Cove Point, and one from Elba Island) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 75 Bcf departed the United States between July 11 and July 17, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
• LNG Terminals: Freeport LNG, south of Houston, resumed operations this week by restarting the first train. Feedgas deliveries to the facility have averaged under 0.2 Bcf/d since July 16, according to Gulf South Pipeline Company. The facility had been offline since July 7, a day before Hurricane Beryl made landfall 40 miles southwest of the terminal. Freeport plans to restart the remaining two trains shortly after the first one, according to the company. Production levels will be at reduced rates for a period of time as personnel continue repairs while operating the facility.

Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, July 9, the natural gas rig count decreased by 1 rig from a week ago to 100 rigs, as the Permian dropped one rig. The number of oil-directed rigs decreased by 1 rig from a week ago to 478 rigs. The Granite Wash added two rigs and the Permian added one rig. The Ardmore Woodford, the Cana Woodford, and the Eagle Ford each dropped one rig, and one rig was dropped among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 6 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 584 rigs, 91 fewer rigs than a year ago.

Storage

• Net injections into storage totaled 10 Bcf for the week ending July 12, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 49 Bcf and last year's net injections of 43 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,209 Bcf, which is 465 Bcf (17%) more than the five-year average and 250 Bcf (8%) more than last year at this time.
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 2 Bcf to 34 Bcf, with a median estimate of 22 Bcf.
• The average rate of injections into storage is 15% lower than the five-year average so far in the refill season (April through October). If the rate of injections into storage matched the five-year average of 8.7 Bcf/d for the remainder of the refill season, the total inventory would be 4,177 Bcf on October 31, which is 465 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 3,712 Bcf for that time of year.

See also:

• Natural Gas Analysis Reports
• Short-Term Energy Outlook