Natural Gas

Today in Energy

Recent Today in Energy analysis of natural gas markets is available on the EIA website.

Market Highlights:

Prices

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 5 cents from $1.98 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.03/MMBtu yesterday.
• Henry Hub futures price: The price of the August 2024 NYMEX contract increased 8.2 cents, from $2.035/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.117/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging August 2024 through July 2025 futures contracts climbed 6 cents to $2.887/MMBtu.
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday, July 17, to Wednesday, July 24). Price changes ranged from a decrease of 15 cents at the Algonquin Citygate to an increase of 34 cents at PG&E Citygate.
• Prices in the Northeast were mixed this report week. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, the price increased 17 cents from $1.34/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.51/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Eastern Gas South in southwest Pennsylvania, near Appalachia region production activities, rose 8 cents from $1.28/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.36/MMBtu yesterday. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price went down 15 cents from $1.90/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.75/MMBtu yesterday. Operational capacity at several locations on the Algonquin Gas Transmission pipeline increased this week. Consumption of natural gas in the electric power sector in the Northeast decreased 16.4% (2.3 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]) this week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Average temperatures in the Boston Area decreased 7°F this week, resulting in 61 cooling degree days (CDD), a decrease of 52 CDDs from last week.
• Prices in the Midwest increased this report week despite a decrease in natural gas consumption. At the Chicago Citygate, the price increased 14 cents from $1.64/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.78/MMBtu yesterday. Consumption of natural gas in the electric power sector in the Midwest decreased 12.9% (0.6 Bcf/d) this week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Average temperatures in the Chicago Area decreased 4°F this week, resulting in 52 CDDs, a decrease of 29 CDDs from last week. Although prices increased week over week, they remain low compared with July 2023. The price at the Chicago Citygate has averaged $1.75/MMBtu so far this July, 25% ($0.57) lower than last July’s average of $2.32/MMBtu.
• Prices in the West increased this report week as temperatures increased. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 34 cents, up from $3.16/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.50/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California increased 6 cents from $2.75/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.81/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, rose 33 cents from $1.87/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.20/MMBtu yesterday. Average temperatures in the Riverside Area, inland from Los Angeles, increased 4°F this week, resulting in 143 CDDs, an increase of 32 CDDs from last week. Total consumption of natural gas in the Western region increased 5.8% (0.6 Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, driven by an 8.2% (0.5 Bcf/d) increase in consumption in the electric power sector to meet increased air-conditioning demand. At the same time, net flows of natural gas from Canada decreased 5.9% (0.2 Bcf/d) this week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• International futures prices: International natural gas futures price changes were mixed this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia decreased 15 cents to a weekly average of $12.13/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands increased 10 cents to a weekly average of $10.26/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending July 26, 2023), the prices were $11.13/MMBtu in East Asia and $9.67/MMBtu at TTF.
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 14 cents/MMBtu, averaging $6.89/MMBtu for the week ending July 24. Ethane prices fell 3% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel decreased 4%, narrowing the ethane premium to natural gas by 1%. The ethylene spot price was unchanged week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane was also unchanged. Propane prices decreased 2%, while Brent crude oil prices decreased 3% week over week, narrowing the propane discount to crude oil by 3% for the week. Normal butane prices were unchanged, isobutane prices rose 1%, and natural gasoline prices fell 4%.

Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 0.4% (0.4 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 0.1% (0.1 Bcf/d) to average 101.9 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada decreased by 7.5% (0.5 Bcf/d) from last week.
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 5.4% (4.3 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, as temperatures for the eastern United States were near or below normal following above-average temperatures last week. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 8.5% (4.1 Bcf/d) week over week. Industrial sector consumption increased by 2.2% (0.5 Bcf/d), while consumption in the residential and commercial sector declined by 7.0% (0.6 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 0.2% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 11.5 Bcf/d, or 0.4 Bcf/d higher than last week.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals increased 0.4 Bcf/d from last week to 11.5 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 0.8% (0.1 Bcf/d) to 7.7 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased 19.2% (0.4 Bcf/d) to 2.6 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged from last week at 1.1 Bcf/d.
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-one LNG vessels (nine from Sabine Pass, four from Corpus Christi, three from Cameron, two each from Calcasieu Pass and Freeport, and one from Elba Island) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 79 Bcf departed the United States between July 18 and July 24, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
• LNG Terminals: Freeport LNG, south of Houston, continued to ramp-up operations this week according to Gulf South Pipeline Company and Texas Eastern Transmission following a period of being offline due to Hurricane Beryl.

Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, July 16, the natural gas rig count increased by 3 rigs from a week ago to 103 rigs. The Haynesville dropped one rig, the Permian and the DJ-Niobrara each added one rig, and two rigs were added among unidentified producing regions. The number of oil-directed rigs decreased by 1 rig from a week ago to 477 rigs. The Ardmore Woodford dropped two rigs and the Cana Woodford, the DJ Niobrara, and the Permian each dropped one rig. The Eagle Ford and the Utica each added one rig, and two rigs were added among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 6 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 586 rigs, 83 fewer rigs than a year ago.

Storage

• Net injections into storage totaled 22 Bcf for the week ending July 19, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 31 Bcf and last year's net injections of 23 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,231 Bcf, which is 456 Bcf (16%) more than the five-year average and 249 Bcf (8%) more than last year at this time.
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net withdrawals of 3 Bcf to net injections of 24 Bcf, with a median estimate of net injections of 13 Bcf.
• The average rate of injections into storage is 15% lower than the five-year average so far in the refill season (April through October). If the rate of injections into storage matched the five-year average of 9 Bcf/d for the remainder of the refill season, the total inventory would be 4,168 Bcf on October 31, which is 456 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 3,712 Bcf for that time of year.

See also:

• Natural Gas Analysis Reports
• Short-Term Energy Outlook