Natural Gas

Today in Energy

Recent Today in Energy analysis of natural gas markets is available on the EIA website.

Market Highlights:

Prices

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price fell 5 cents from $2.17 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.12/MMBtu yesterday.
• Henry Hub futures price: The price of the September 2024 NYMEX contract decreased 4.2 cents, from $2.219/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.177/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging September 2024 through August 2025 futures contracts declined 4.1 cents to $2.978/MMBtu.
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices fell at most locations this report week (Wednesday, August 14, to Wednesday, August 21). Price changes ranged from a decrease of 47 cents at the Waha Hub in West Texas to an increase of 39 cents at Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border.
• Prices in the Northeast fell this report week as temperatures toward the end of the week decreased. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price fell 16 cents from $1.73/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.57/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, the price decreased 18 cents from $1.63/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.45/MMBtu yesterday. The average temperature in the New York-Central Park Area was 79°F on August 16 but decreased to an average of 65°F yesterday, 11°F below normal. This resulted in no cooling degree days (CDD), which is 11 fewer CDDs than normal. Consumption of natural gas in the electric power sector in the Northeast decreased 1% (0.1 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]) this report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.
• Prices in California declined this report week as weather forecasts shifted to cooler temperatures. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell 36 cents from $2.76/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.40/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 32 cents from $1.99/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.67/MMBtu yesterday. Average temperatures in the Riverside Area, inland from Los Angeles, decreased slightly this week, resulting in 8 fewer CDDs than last week. The National Weather Service expects temperatures to fall further through the weekend with highs dropping to 5 to 10 degrees below normal in Los Angeles. SoCal Gas storage inventory of natural gas was 106 Bcf, or 77% full, as of yesterday.
• The price at Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, increased 39 cents from $1.04/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.43/MMBtu yesterday. Maintenance on the T-South pipeline (notice 58530) on Enbridge’s Westcoast Energy system that delivers natural gas from Canada into Washington began on Tuesday, August 20, reducing capacity to 76% of total capacity. Enbridge expects the maintenance to be completed by Tuesday, August 27.

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• International futures prices: International natural gas futures price changes were mixed this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia increased $1.27/MMBtu to a weekly average of $13.90/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands decreased 16 cents to a weekly average of $12.60/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending August 23, 2023), the prices were $14.09/MMBtu in East Asia and $12.35/MMBtu at TTF.
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 2 cents/MMBtu, averaging $6.75/MMBtu for the week ending August 21. Ethane prices fell 5% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel increased 1%, narrowing the ethane premium to natural gas by 25%. The ethylene spot price rose 1% week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane increased 2%. Propane prices were relatively unchanged, while Brent crude oil prices decreased 2% week over week. The propane discount to crude oil narrowed 6% for the week. Normal butane prices rose 6%, isobutane prices were essentially unchanged, and natural gasoline prices fell 2%.

Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas remained the same as in the previous report week, averaging 107.8 Bcf/d. Dry natural gas production remained unchanged at 101.3 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada decreased by 1.0% (0.1 Bcf/d) from last week.
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 1.6% (1.2 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed for power generation rose by 1.9% (0.8 Bcf/d) week over week as temperatures were above average for the central and southern United States. Industrial sector consumption increased by 0.3% (0.1 Bcf/d) week over week, and residential and commercial sector consumption increased by 3.4% (0.3 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 3.6% (0.3 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 12.8 Bcf/d, or 0.2 Bcf/d higher than last week.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals increased 0.2 Bcf/d from last week to 12.8 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased 3.4% (0.2 Bcf/d) to 7.6 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas were essentially unchanged at 4.4 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged.
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-six LNG vessels (eight from Sabine Pass, five from Corpus Christi, four from Freeport, three each from Calcasieu Pass and Cameron, two from Cove Point, and one from Elba Island) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 99 Bcf departed the United States between August 15 and August 21, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, August 13, the natural gas rig count increased by 1 rig from a week ago to 98 rigs. The Eagle Ford and the Permian each added one rig, and one rig was dropped among unidentified producing regions. The number of oil-directed rigs decreased by 2 rigs from a week ago to 483 rigs. The Ardmore Woodford added one rig, the Mississippian added two rigs, and one rig was added among unidentified producing regions. The Eagle Ford dropped three rigs, the Permian dropped two rigs, and the Utica dropped one rig. The total rig count, which includes 5 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 586 rigs, 56 fewer rigs than a year ago.

Storage

• Net injections into storage totaled 35 Bcf for the week ending August 16, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 41 Bcf and last year's net injections of 23 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,299 Bcf, which is 369 Bcf (13%) more than the five-year average and 221 Bcf (7%) more than last year at this time.
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 15 Bcf to 41 Bcf, with a median estimate of 26 Bcf.
• The average rate of injections into storage is 20% lower than the five-year average so far in the refill season (April through October). If the rate of injections into storage matched the five-year average of 10.3 Bcf/d for the remainder of the refill season, the total inventory would be 4,081 Bcf on October 31, which is 369 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 3,712 Bcf for that time of year.

See also:

• Natural Gas Analysis Reports
• Short-Term Energy Outlook