Natural Gas

Today in Energy

Recent Today in Energy analysis of natural gas markets is available on the EIA website.

Market Highlights:

Prices

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price fell 21 cents from $2.42 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.21/MMBtu yesterday.
• Henry Hub futures price: The price of the November 2024 NYMEX contract decreased 29 cents, from $2.660/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.367/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging November 2024 through October 2025 futures contracts declined 19 cents to $2.945/MMBtu.
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices fell at most major pricing locations this report week (Wednesday, October 9, to Wednesday, October 16). Price changes ranged from a decrease of 70 cents at SoCal Citygate to an increase of 34 cents at the Waha Hub.
• Prices rose at most locations in the Northeast this week. The price at Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, fell 2 cents from $2.10/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.08/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transco Zone 6 NY trading point for New York City, the price increased 18 cents from $1.73/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.91/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the Northeast fell this report week, and natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sector for space heating increased by 68% (2.5 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. In the New York-Central Park Area, temperatures averaged 57°F, 2°F below normal for this time of year and 8°F lower than last week, resulting in 55 heating degree days (HDDs), 45 more HDDs than last week. The price at Eastern Gas South, located near Appalachian Basin production activities, increased 13 cents from $1.61/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.74/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas production in Appalachia increased by 2% (0.6 Bcf/d) this week; however, natural gas deliveries from Appalachia to nearby regions increased by 5% (1.1 Bcf/d), with nearly all of the increased volume going to the Atlantic region and New York/New Jersey.
• In the Southeast, at FGT Citygate, which reflects deliveries of natural gas into Florida via the Florida Gas Transmission pipeline, the price rose 7 cents from $2.52/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.59/MMBtu yesterday. Hurricane Milton made landfall on Florida’s west coast on October 10, leaving millions of residents without power. Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector on the Atlantic Coast, which includes Florida, decreased by 12% (0.9 Bcf/d) this report week, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Power was restored to the majority of customers who lost power due to the hurricane by the end of the report week.
• In California, prices fell this report week. At PG&E Citygate in Northern California, which is among the highest-priced markets in North America, the price fell 12 cents from $4.30/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.18/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 69 cents from $3.08 last Wednesday to $2.39/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector in California decreased by 32% (0.8 Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, as cooler temperatures moved into the region. Temperatures in the Sacramento Area averaged 70°F this report week, 4°F above normal, resulting in 34 cooling degree days, 64 fewer than last week.
• At Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, the price fell 32 cents from $2.30/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.98/MMBtu yesterday. Prices in the region fell below $1.00/MMBtu on Friday and Tuesday of this report week before increasing yesterday. Natural gas deliveries from Canada into the Pacific Northwest rose 14% (0.5 Bcf/d) from the previous report week, and natural gas consumption in the region fell 2% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) compared with last week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.
• The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, increased 34 cents from -$1.17/MMBtu last Wednesday to -$0.83/MMBtu yesterday. The Waha Hub traded $3.04 below the Henry Hub price yesterday, compared with last Wednesday when it traded $3.58 below the Henry Hub price. Ongoing maintenance on the El Paso Natural Gas pipeline system that transports natural gas westbound from the Permian Basin continued to reduce available takeaway capacity this week, while the Matterhorn pipeline delivered approximately 0.7 Bcf/d to the interstate pipeline connections in the Houston area.

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices increased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia increased 7 cents to a weekly average of $13.17/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands increased 1 cent to a weekly average of $12.79/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending October 18, 2023), the prices were $16.50/MMBtu in East Asia and $15.78/MMBtu at TTF.
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 26 cents/MMBtu, averaging $7.58/MMBtu for the week ending October 16. Ethane prices fell 3% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel decreased 10%, widening the ethane premium to natural gas by 13%. The ethylene spot price fell 1% week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane was relatively unchanged. Propane prices decreased 6%, while Brent crude oil prices decreased 2% week over week, widening the propane discount to crude oil by 8%. Normal butane prices fell 1%, isobutane prices rose 1%, and natural gasoline prices fell 2%.

Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 0.4% (0.5 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.1% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) to average 101.5 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada increased by 8.8% (0.5 Bcf/d) from last week.
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 3.1% (2.2 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 9.1% (3.4 Bcf/d) week over week. Consumption in the industrial sector increased by 2.0% (0.5 Bcf/d), and consumption in the residential and commercial sector increased by 47.6% (5.2 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 1.5% (0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 13.7 Bcf/d, or 1.0 Bcf/d higher than last week.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals increased 1.0 Bcf/d from last week to 13.7 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased by 2.9% (0.2 Bcf/d) to 8.3 Bcf/d, and natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased 3.4% (0.2 Bcf/d) to 4.4 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast increased 0.6 Bcf/d to 1.0 Bcf/d, as Cove Point LNG concluded its scheduled maintenance and resumed operations.
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-two LNG vessels (eight from Sabine Pass, four each from Corpus Christi and Freeport, three from Cameron, two from Calcasieu Pass, and one from Elba Island) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 83 Bcf departed the United States between October 10 and October 16, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, October 8, the natural gas rig count decreased by 1 rig from a week ago to 101 rigs. The Eagle Ford added two rigs, the Permian dropped one rig, and the Marcellus dropped two rigs. The number of oil-directed rigs increased by 2 rigs from a week ago to 481 rigs. The Cana Woodford added two rigs, the Permian and Ardmore Woodford added one rig each, the Eagle Ford dropped one rig, and one rig was dropped among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 4 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 586 rigs, 36 fewer rigs than a year ago.

Storage

• Net injections into storage totaled 76 Bcf for the week ending October 11, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 89 Bcf and last year's net injections of 93 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,705 Bcf, which is 163 Bcf (5%) more than the five-year average and 107 Bcf (3%) more than last year at this time.
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 63 Bcf to 85 Bcf, with a median estimate of 79 Bcf.
• The average rate of injections into storage is 25% lower than the five-year average so far in the refill season (April through October). If the rate of injections into storage matched the five-year average of 8.5 Bcf/d for the remainder of the refill season, the total inventory would be 3,875 Bcf on October 31, which is 163 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 3,712 Bcf for that time of year.

See also:

• Natural Gas Analysis Reports
• Short-Term Energy Outlook