A look back at our forecast for global crude oil prices in 2024
Benchmark Brent crude oil prices averaged $81 per barrel (b) in 2024, in line with the $82/b for the year that we had forecast in our January 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and more in-depth analysis. In the January 2024 STEO, we forecast that markets would be relatively balanced in 2024, changing little from the 2023 average Brent price of $82/b. On an annual basis, our forecast for balanced markets was relatively accurate, as global inventories showed only a slight drawdown of 0.18 million barrels per day in 2024.
Read More ›U.S. wholesale electricity prices were lower and less volatile in 2024
Average wholesale electricity prices at major trading hubs in the Lower 48 states were lower in 2024 than in 2023. In addition, prices were much less volatile than they have been over the last few years. Lower and more stable electricity prices in 2024 were mostly driven by low natural gas prices, as well as increases in generation for some lower cost renewable energy sources and new battery storage capacity.
Read More ›Tags: generation, electricity, prices, wholesale prices
EIA extends five key energy forecasts through December 2026
In our January 2024 Short-Term Energy Outlook, which includes data and forecasts through December 2026, we forecast five key energy trends that we expect will help shape markets over the next two years.
Read More ›Natural gas vehicle fuel prices rose in 2022 and 2023 after a decade of relative stability
Note: Real prices are adjusted for inflation with the Consumer Price Index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
After a decade of nearly flat prices from 2011 to 2021, inflation-adjusted fuel prices for natural gas vehicles increased in 37 states from 2021 to 2023, according to new estimates in our State Energy Data System (SEDS). Real U.S. natural gas prices for vehicle fuel remained 25% below their peak in 2008.
Read More ›The eighth U.S. liquefied natural gas export terminal, Plaquemines LNG, ships first cargo
Note: Bcf/d=billion cubic feet per day; LNG=liquefied natural gas
On December 26, 2024, Plaquemines LNG—the eighth liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal in the United States—shipped its first cargo after achieving first LNG production in mid-December. Plaquemines LNG is one of two U.S. LNG export terminals that started LNG production in 2024. Corpus Christi Stage 3 (an expansion of the existing Corpus Christi LNG export terminal) also began LNG production in December 2024.
Read More ›Since the 2011 Fukushima accident, Japan has restarted 14 nuclear reactors
Japanese utilities restarted two additional nuclear reactors in 2024 that had been suspended from operations in response to the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident, taking the total number of restarted reactors to 14 since the accident. In November, Tohoku Electric Power Co. restarted its 796-megawatt (MW) Onagawa Unit 2 reactor, and in December Chugoku Electric Power Co. restarted its Shimane Unit 2 (789 MW). Onagawa is the nuclear power plant located closest to the epicenter of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.
Read More ›Tags: Japan, nuclear, electricity, generation, power plants, map
Spot Henry Hub natural gas prices hit a historic low in 2024
In 2024, the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.21 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the lowest average annual price in inflation-adjusted dollars ever reported. The annual average Henry Hub natural gas spot price in 2024 decreased by 16% from its 2023 average and 68% from its 2022 average, the largest two-year decline on record. The monthly average Henry Hub spot natural gas price in 2024 ranged from $3.25/MMBtu in January to an all-time low of $1.51/MMBtu in March, reflecting a narrower $1.74/MMBtu range of monthly prices across the year than the average range of $2.32/MMBtu over the prior five years.
Read More ›Tags: Henry Hub, natural gas, spot prices
In 2024, U.S. retail gasoline prices averaged about 20 cents less than in 2023
Note: Retail price is for all formulations of regular grade gasoline.
The U.S. retail price for regular grade gasoline averaged $3.30 per gallon (gal) in 2024, $0.21/gal less than in 2023. Lower crude oil prices and narrower refinery margins in 2024 than in 2023 both contributed to the decrease in U.S. retail gasoline prices, according to data from our Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. From the first week of 2024 through the last week, national average weekly gasoline prices decreased $0.08/gal.
Read More ›Brent crude oil prices traded in a narrow range in 2024
Note: A front-month contract is a futures contract that is the closest to expiration.
Benchmark Brent crude oil futures prices averaged $80 per barrel (b) in 2024, $2/b less than in 2023. Intraday prices stayed within a $24/b range, between $68/b and $93/b (after rounding), which was the narrowest trading range since 2019. Adjusting the trading range for inflation, last year was the narrowest since 2003. Strong global growth in production of oil and slower demand growth put downward pressure on prices, while heightened geopolitical risks and voluntary production restrictions among OPEC+ members supported them. These offsetting factors kept oil prices within a narrow range.
Read More ›Tags: Brent, crude oil, oil/petroleum, liquid fuels, prices
China imported record amounts of crude oil in 2023
From December 26 to January 3, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2024. Today’s article was originally published on April 16.
China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, imported 11.3 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil in 2023, 10% more than in 2022, according to China customs data. Refiners in China imported record volumes of crude oil in 2023 to supply the country’s increasing refining capacity in order to support the country’s transportation fuel needs and produce feedstocks for its growing petrochemical industry.
Read More ›Commercial electricity demand grew fastest in states with rapid computing facility growth
From December 26 to January 3, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2024. Today’s article was originally published on June 28.
Consumption of electricity in the U.S. commercial sector has recovered from pandemic levels, with annual U.S. sales of electricity to commercial customers in 2023 totaling 14 billion kilowatthours (BkWh), or 1%, more than in 2019. However, the growth in commercial demand for electricity is concentrated in a handful of states experiencing rapid development of large-scale computing facilities such as data centers. Electricity demand has grown the most in Virginia, which added 14 BkWh, and Texas, which added 13 BkWh. Based on our expectation that regional electricity demand will grow, we revised our forecasts upward for commercial electricity demand through 2025 in our June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
Read More ›U.S. energy production exceeded consumption by record amount in 2023
From December 26 to January 3, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2024. Today’s article was originally published on June 26.
In 2023, energy production in the United States rose 4% to nearly 103 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), a record. Energy consumption in the United States fell 1% to 94 quads during the same period. Production exceeded consumption by 9 quads, more than at any other time in our records, which date to 1949.
Read More ›North America’s LNG export capacity is on track to more than double by 2028
From December 26 to January 3, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2024. Today’s article was originally published on September 3.
Note: Export capacity shown is project's baseload capacity. Online dates of LNG export projects under construction are estimates based on trade press. LNG=liquefied natural gas; FLNG=floating liquefied natural gas
North America’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity is on track to more than double between 2024 and 2028, from 11.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023 to 24.4 Bcf/d in 2028, if projects currently under construction begin operations as planned. Between 2024 and 2028, we estimate LNG export capacity will grow by 0.8 Bcf/d in Mexico, 2.5 Bcf/d in Canada, and 9.7 Bcf/d in the United States from a total of 10 new projects that are currently under construction in the three countries.
Read More ›U.S. share of electric and hybrid vehicle sales increased in the second quarter of 2024
From December 26 to January 3, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2024. Today’s article was originally published on August 26.
Note: EV=electric vehicles, which include both battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
The share of electric and hybrid vehicle sales in the United States increased in the second quarter of 2024 (2Q24) after a slight decline in 1Q24. Combined U.S. sales of hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increased from 17.8% of total new light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales in 1Q24 to 18.7% in 2Q24, according to estimates from Wards Intelligence.
Read More ›Solar and battery storage to make up 81% of new U.S. electric-generating capacity in 2024
From December 26 to January 3, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2024. Today’s article was originally published on February 15.
Developers and power plant owners plan to add 62.8 gigawatts (GW) of new utility-scale electric-generating capacity in 2024, according to our latest Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory. This addition would be 55% more added capacity than the 40.4 GW added in 2023 (the most since 2003) and points to a continued rise in industry activity. We expect solar to account for the largest share of new capacity in 2024, at 58%, followed by battery storage, at 23%.
Read More ›Tags: nuclear, natural gas, generation, electricity, storage, wind, solar, map, capacity