Development of new fields in Gulf of Mexico to offset production decline in 2024 and 2025

We recently implemented a new model for forecasting crude oil and natural gas production from the U.S. Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico (GOM) in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). In our latest outlook, we forecast that GOM production will remain relatively flat with new fields offsetting the natural production declines from existing fields.

Hurricane Francine has taken energy infrastructure offline

Hurricane Francine made landfall Wednesday on the Louisiana coast before being downgraded to a tropical storm, taking some energy infrastructure offline along the U.S. Gulf Coast from Louisiana through Alabama. Detailed information on energy infrastructure and storm risks is available and regularly updated in our U.S. Energy Atlas.

U.S. electric power sector explores hydrogen cofiring at natural gas-fired plants

Against a backdrop of policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, operators of a handful of natural gas plants have taken early steps to integrate hydrogen into their fuel streams. Hydrogen alone does not create CO₂ emissions when combusted.

Retail electricity prices closely tracked inflation over the last 10 years

The change in average residential electricity prices across the United States has generally mirrored the rate of inflation over the past decade, increasing by less than 1% in inflation-adjusted terms between 2013 and 2023. Without adjusting for inflation, the average retail price of electricity for the residential sector increased from a little more than 12 cents per kilowatthour (kWh) in 2013 to 16 cents per kWh in 2023.

Natural gas pipeline capacity from the Permian Basin is set to increase

Natural gas pipeline takeaway capacity in the Permian Basin will soon increase as the Matterhorn Express Pipeline, with a capacity of 2.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), is expected to begin service this month, according to EnLink Midstream, one of the project’s stakeholders.

Trend toward electric utility rate increases in regulated markets continues in 2024

Utility regulators in the United States are considering increases to electricity rates again this year as electric utilities seek to cover the investments needed to maintain and expand their systems. Utilities requested rate increases in recent years to pay for improvements to transmission and distribution lines to withstand increasingly serious weather and fire events, prepare for increased electrification as state and federal clean energy legislation is implemented, and move more energy reliably, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence Capital IQ Pro.

Batteries are a fast-growing secondary electricity source for the grid

• Utility-scale battery energy storage systems have been growing quickly as a source of electric power capacity in the United States in recent years. In the first seven months of 2024, operators added 5 gigawatts (GW) of capacity to the U.S. electric power grid, according to data in our July 2024 electric generator inventory. In 2010, only 4 megawatts (MW) of utility-scale battery energy storage was added in the United States. In July 2024, more than 20.7 GW of battery energy storage capacity was available in the United States.

U.S. thermal coal exports to Asia and Africa surge as shipments to Europe fall

U.S. exports of thermal coal to Asia and Africa surged in the first half of 2024, helping to drive overall U.S. coal exports (thermal and metallurgical) to 53 million short tons (MMst) from 49 MMst in the first half of 2023.

North America’s LNG export capacity is on track to more than double by 2028

North America’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity is on track to more than double between 2024 and 2028, from 11.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023 to 24.4 Bcf/d in 2028, if projects currently under construction begin operations as planned. Between 2024 and 2028, we estimate LNG export capacity will grow by 0.8 Bcf/d in Mexico, 2.5 Bcf/d in Canada, and 9.7 Bcf/d in the United States from a total of 10 new projects that are currently under construction in the three countries.

U.S. gasoline prices heading into Labor Day weekend are lower than last year

Heading into the holiday weekend, the retail price for all formulations of regular gasoline in the United States averaged $3.31 per gallon (gal) on August 26, 2024, 13% lower than this time last year. The decrease in prices paid at the pump was driven by weak growth in global and U.S. petroleum product demand, continued crude oil production growth from countries outside of OPEC+, and China’s slowing economy.

U.S. energy spending increased by more than 20% in 2022

In 2022, energy expenditures—or the amount of money U.S. consumers spent on energy—increased 22% from 2021 to more than $1.7 trillion when adjusted for inflation, according to our State Energy Data System (SEDS). More money was spent on energy in the United States on an inflation-adjusted basis in 2022 than in all but two years in our records. Higher U.S. energy prices in 2022 compared with 2021, particularly higher petroleum prices for transportation, caused most of the increase in total U.S. energy expenditures.

Natural gas-fired electricity generation increased during heat waves in New England

Electricity generation using fossil fuels increased in New England to meet the additional air-conditioning demand during heat waves in June and July. Natural gas-fired electricity generation made up 56% of New England’s generation mix during the week of the June 16 heat wave, peaking at 61% on June 22. Between July 6 and 13, natural gas-fired electricity averaged 58% of the generation mix. Despite the closure of the Mystic Generating Station in Massachusetts, natural gas accounted for more of the generation mix during both periods compared with the five-year (2019–23) average of 48% for the June 16–23 period and 54% for July 6–13.

U.S. share of electric and hybrid vehicle sales increased in the second quarter of 2024

The share of electric and hybrid vehicle sales in the United States increased in the second quarter of 2024 (2Q24) after a slight decline in 1Q24. Combined U.S. sales of hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) increased from 17.8% of total new light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales in 1Q24 to 18.7% in 2Q24, according to estimates from Wards Intelligence.

Midwest refinery outages increase regional gasoline prices

A series of refinery outages in Chicago and Ohio have generally increased Midwest prices for petroleum products relative to the U.S. average, particularly gasoline. The outages reflect an unusual decline in refining activity near the end of the high-demand summer season and have drawn down regional inventories.

Permian production forecast growth driven by well productivity, pipeline capacity

In our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that crude oil production in the United States will grow to an average of 13.7 million barrels per day (b/d) and marketed natural gas production will grow to an average of 114.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025. Most of the forecast growth in oil and natural gas production comes from the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico, where we expect productivity gains, new and expanded infrastructure, and high crude oil prices will support rising production.