Natural gas

Natural gas production
Marketed natural gas production in the Lower 48 (L48) averaged 117.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), a 4% increase compared with the same period in 2025. We expect L48 production to steadily increase throughout our forecast period, averaging 118.9 Bcf/d in 2026 and 124.0 Bcf/d in 2027. Higher crude oil prices throughout 2026 compared with last year support sustained production of associated natural gas.

We forecast L48 marketed natural gas production will increase 3% this year compared with 2025, largely because of rising production in the latter part of the year. This increase is driven mainly by the Permian region, which we expect to produce 29.2 Bcf/d in 2026, or 6% more than in 2025. The Permian region is predominantly an oil producing region, and operators in the region are influenced by crude oil prices. Most of the Permian’s natural gas production is associated natural gas. Currently, the region faces severe pipeline constraints, as evidenced by record-low Waha Hub spot prices, which have averaged below zero for eight of the last nine months. However, we expect these constraints will be alleviated later this year, and we forecast production in the Permian region to grow by 10% next year. We also forecast natural gas production in the Haynesville region, which is a natural gas-dominant region, to grow by 6% this year and 8% next year. Compared with last month’s forecast, we expect natural gas production in the L48 to be 1.1 Bcf/d higher this year and 2.6 Bcf/d higher in 2027, based on our analysis that shows rising gas-to-oil ratios from many wells in the Permian region.

Natural gas prices and stroage
We estimate that more than 2,020 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas was withdrawn from storage over this winter heating and withdrawal season (November–March), or 4% more than the five-year (2021–2025) average. Henry Hub spot prices reached a monthly average of $7.72 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in January. Despite a colder-than-normal January, near-normal conditions for the remaining season supported storage levels that were just above the five-year average by the end of March. At winter's end, we estimate that U.S. working natural gas in underground storage totaled 1,908 Bcf, or 4% more than the five-year average. With storage rising back above the seasonal average the Henry Hub spot price in April fell to $2.77/MMBtu.

With higher production, we expect natural gas injections into storage during the April–October injection season to be above average. We forecast the Henry Hub price will average $2.83/MMBtu in 2Q26, 11% lower than in 2Q25. We forecast U.S. natural gas inventories will end the injection season on October 31 at 7% above the previous five-year average. Higher storage levels help meet demand and reduce the risk of price volatility. We expect the Henry Hub price to average about $3.50/MMBtu in 2026 and $3.18/MMBtu in 2027.

LNG exports In April, liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal operators in the United States added approximately 0.9 Bcf/d of export capacity. On April 22, Golden Pass LNG exported its first cargo from Train 1, adding approximately 0.7 Bcf/d of export capacity and becoming the ninth operational U.S. LNG export terminal. In addition, Cheniere began ramping up LNG production at Train 5 at Corpus Christi Stage 3, adding 0.2 Bcf/d of nominal export capacity. Commissioning activities have also begun on Train 6 at Corpus Christi Stage 3, which we expect will add another 0.2 Bcf/d of nominal export capacity in summer 2026. LNG exports in our forecast average 17.0 Bcf/d this year and 18.2 Bcf/d in 2027. We reduced our forecast for LNG exports next year by 0.4 Bcf/d compared with last month’s STEO because Golden Pass shareholder Exxon announced delays to startup at the facility’s Trains 2 and 3.

Global near-month futures prices have remained elevated amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Price spreads between U.S. and international prices narrowed in April compared to their highs reached in mid-March, but the spreads remained wider than before the closure of the strait as a result of near-maximum export capacity utilization rates of U.S. LNG terminals. Our March and April export estimates are the second- and third-highest ever, behind December 2025 (18.4 Bcf/d). We estimate that LNG exports fell to 17.6 Bcf/d in April from 18.1 Bcf/d in March on lower spot market demand due to milder weather globally.