Natural gas

Natural gas storage and prices
U.S. natural gas prices fell for the second month in a row in November as mild autumn weather persisted in the first half of the month and the Lower 48 states entered the winter heating season with 6% more working natural gas in storage than the previous five-year (2019–2023) average.

The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged just over $2.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in November, down slightly from $2.20/MMBtu in October. With cold late November and early December weather over much of the eastern part of the country, spot prices rose. We forecast the Henry Hub spot price will average $3.00/MMBtu for the rest of the winter heating season, which ends in March, and just under $3.00/MMBtu in 2025.

We forecast natural gas inventories will remain above the five-year average all winter. Because of relatively flat natural gas production in our forecast, and because current forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show a colder-than-normal December, we expect natural gas inventories to fall by about 590 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in December, 34% more than the five-year average withdrawal for the month. However, our forecast assumes weather will be milder than normal in 1Q25, which would mean less natural gas withdrawn from inventory than is typical for the first quarter. We expect natural gas inventories to be 2% above the five-year (2020–2024) average by the end of March 2025 at 1,920 Bcf.

U.S dry natural gas production in our forecast averages 103 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 1Q25, which is flat compared with 4Q24. For the year, we forecast natural gas production will increase 1% in 2025 due to increased production in the Permian and Eagle Ford regions, where natural gas production is primarily associated with oil production. We also expect more production in the Haynesville region because of higher prices and increased demand from nearby new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects that will be ramping up production.

U.S. LNG exports in our forecast are averaging nearly 12 Bcf/d in 2024, essentially flat compared with last year. We expect LNG exports to increase by 15% in 2025, reaching almost 14 Bcf/d, as export capacity expands with Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3, which are both expected to start LNG exports by the end of December. On November 21, Plaquemines LNG received approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to introduce hazardous fluids to liquefaction Block 1 (first two trains), and Corpus Christi Stage 3 received a similar approval from FERC on November 27. These approvals are a key step for these facilities to begin liquefying natural gas for export.