Natural gas

Natural gas storage
U.S. natural gas inventories are set to be relatively high heading into the winter heating season. We forecast U.S. working natural gas inventories will total 3,969 billion cubic feet (Bcf) on October 31, 2026, 5% above the previous five-year average (2021–2025) and 1% above October 2025 levels. Relatively high inventories in part reflect strong growth in natural gas production in recent months. Regional balances vary entering the withdrawal season (November—March), with inventories in the Mountain region at 21% above their five-year average, followed by the Pacific at 10%, the Midwest at 6%, and South Central at 4%. Inventories in the East are expected to enter the withdrawal season about equal to the five-year average.

Lower relative inventories in the East largely stem from a lower starting point for the injection season relative to the other regions and more limited regional production growth. Inventories in the region began the injection season 11% below the five-year average, following relatively large winter withdrawals owing to colder-than-normal weather. Although Appalachian natural gas production remains near record highs, its growth has been slower this year compared with other regions.

Natural gas production
U.S. marketed natural gas production continues to grow in our forecast, providing additional supply to meet demand and support storage additions. Production increases by 4.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026 and 4.6 Bcf/d in 2027. The Permian and Haynesville regions together account for more than 70% of production growth in our forecast.

Permian production in our forecast grows by 1.7 Bcf/d in 2026 and 2.2 Bcf/d in 2027. Most Permian natural gas production is associated with crude oil production. Natural gas production in the region has been growing faster than crude oil production as natural gas-to-oil ratios increase. The Permian natural gas-to-oil ratio averaged nearly 4,200 cubic feet per barrel in 2025, 15% higher than in 2021. Additionally, pipeline capacity additions help support production growth through the forecast period. Energy Transfer’s Hugh Brinson pipeline—which originates in the Permian—began interstate natural gas shipments in June, which is earlier than we had previously expected. The pipeline will ramp up flows through early 2027.

Haynesville production in our forecast increases by 1.4 Bcf/d in 2026 and by 1.3 Bcf/d in 2027, supported by forecast stable natural gas prices at Henry Hub, the region’s proximity to Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas export terminals, and nearby industrial demand. Appalachian production increases by about 0.6 Bcf/d in 2026 and 0.3 Bcf/d in 2027.