Petroleum products

U.S. petroleum product consumption
We forecast there will be more consumption of distillate fuel oil and jet fuel in the United States in 2025 and 2026 than in 2024. However, we expect U.S. motorists will consume about the same amount of gasoline in 2025 compared with last year and will consume slightly less in 2026. These forecasts are driven by assumptions of increased manufacturing and trucking activity for distillate fuel oil, increased air travel for jet fuel, and a more fuel-efficient vehicle fleet for motor gasoline.

We forecast U.S. consumption of distillate fuel oil—which includes petroleum-based distillate fuel oil, renewable diesel, and biodiesel—to increase by 4% in 2025 and by almost 1% in 2026, reaching record highs in both years. Our forecast increase in U.S. distillate consumption is driven by our outlook for growing GDP and industrial activity based on the S&P Global macroeconomic model. We expect economic growth to increase distillate fuel oil demand from manufacturers and truckers who ship goods.

Increased air travel, measured both as TSA passenger volume and flight departures, has increased U.S. jet fuel consumption every year following the steep decline in 2020. We forecast jet fuel consumption to increase in the United States by about 2% in 2025 and to surpass the 2019 pre-pandemic volume when it grows another 1% in 2026.

Motor gasoline is the only one of the three primary transportation fuels that we do not forecast to surpass 2019 volumes in the United States in the next two years. Fuel efficiency gains in the vehicle fleet have generally outpaced growth in driving since 2019, allowing drivers to travel more miles using less gasoline. We forecast U.S. motor gasoline consumption to remain about flat in 2025 as driving activity, measured by vehicle miles traveled, keeps pace with fuel efficiency gains. We forecast gasoline consumption to decrease slightly in 2026, when we assume slower growth in driving activity as employment growth slows. Compared with 2019, we forecast 4% less U.S. motor gasoline consumption in 2025 and 5% less in 2026, despite more miles driven in both years.

U.S. total refinery output
We expect the closure of two U.S. refineries to result in less U.S. crude oil refining in both 2025 and 2026, decreasing the production of refined products. U.S. refinery output in our forecasts decreases by 190,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and 180,000 b/d in 2026 as refinery capacity decreases.

LyondellBasell began shutting down its 263,776-b/d Houston refinery on January 27, 2025, and expects completion in early February. We expect Phillips 66 to close its 138,700-b/d Los Angeles refinery at the end of 2025.

To meet the forecast increase in U.S. consumption of petroleum products with less U.S. refinery capacity, we expect refinery utilization to remain relatively high and for net U.S. exports of petroleum products to decrease to meet domestic fuel demand. We also forecast that U.S. inventories of gasoline, distillate fuel, and jet fuel will decline.