Natural gas

LNG exports
We estimate U.S. LNG exports were 17.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in March, an 8% increase over our January STEO forecast and the second-highest LNG export volume on record following December 2025. The widening spread between domestic and international prices as a result of continued disruptions to LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz encourages increased LNG exports from the United States, although capacity is constrained. We forecast that full-year 2026 LNG exports will total 17.0 Bcf/d, up from 16.4 Bcf/d in our January forecast, and 2027 exports will total 18.6 Bcf/d, up 0.5 Bcf/d from our January forecast, both above the previous annual record of 15.1 Bcf/d set in 2025.

At least one U.S. export terminal operator is considering deferring maintenance amid favorable pricing economics due to global supply disruptions in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26). We expect that 2026 terminal utilization rates in the United States will be slightly higher than in 2025 and near maximum capacity as the spread between domestic Henry Hub prices and European and Asian import prices for spot cargoes remains wide. We expect an additional 0.9 Bcf/d of nameplate export capacity will come online in 2Q26, including Corpus Christi Stage 3 (Train 5), which reached substantial completion in March, and Golden Pass Train 1, which is set to begin exports in 2Q26. In March, the DOE approved a 13% (0.5 Bcf/d) increase in export authorization for Plaquemines LNG to ship cargoes to countries lacking a free trade agreement with the United States, which receive the majority of U.S. LNG exports.

The price spread between the average near-month futures prices between Henry Hub and the Title Transfer Facility price in Europe averaged $14.89 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), according to data from Bloomberg, L.P. That spread was up 83% compared with February. The spread between Henry Hub and the Japan-Korea Marker rose 98% over the same period to $15.23/MMBtu. An attack on the Ras Laffan LNG export facility in Qatar on March 18 damaged two liquefaction trains, representing 17% of Qatari export capacity. In 2025, Qatar exported nearly 20% of global LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. As of March 19, QatarEnergy estimates repairs on those trains to take up to five years.

We now forecast natural gas pipeline imports into the United States for 2026 at 8.1 Bcf/d, up 0.1 Bcf/d from our January STEO forecast. Colder-than-expected weather in January and February led to more natural gas consumption for space heating than we initially expected. January 2026 pipeline imports were 10.6 Bcf/d, up from 9.4 Bcf/d in our January STEO. We estimate pipeline imports reached 9.0 Bcf/d in February, up 0.1 Bcf/d from our January STEO.

Natural gas stroage
We estimate U.S. natural gas inventories ended the 2025–2026 withdrawal season at about 1,900 Bcf, which is 3% above the five-year average. In January, inventories fell because of large withdrawals, including a record 360 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending January 30. However, storage levels rebounded soon thereafter due to rising production and relatively mild weather and ended the season above average.

We forecast more natural gas will be injected into storage than is typical this year, largely because increased crude oil production supports more associated natural gas production. We expect marketed natural gas production to increase 2% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. This outlook depends on how production growth materializes, how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes this summer, as well as the pace of LNG export ramp-up.

With inventories near average, we expect Henry Hub prices in 2Q26 and 3Q26 to remain close to recent seasonal norms, averaging about $3.10/MMBtu, closely aligned with the same quarters last year.

Looking to 2027, we expect storage balances to edge below the previous five-year average, despite stronger injections this year. By the start of the 2027–2028 heating season in October 2027, natural gas inventories total almost 3,800 Bcf, or 1% below the previous five-year average. That amount would be the lowest inventory level at the start of withdrawal season since 2022, due largely to the rapid growth in LNG exports pulling more natural gas from U.S. storage.