Electricity, coal, and renewables

Electricity consumption
Above-average temperatures across the country in our forecast this summer lead to more electricity generation. Our forecast assumes a 3% increase in cooling degree days from June to September this year, which results in 1,620 billion kilowatthours (BKWh) of electricity being generated in these months, a 3% increase from last summer. We expect the increase will be met almost entirely by increased generation from renewable fuel sources. Coal generation in our forecast declines by 2% from last summer. This decline is offset by an increase of 19% in utility-scale solar generation relative to last summer, reflecting a 20% increase in the average utility-scale solar capacity available in the summer months of 2026 compared with last summer. Wind generation is also forecast to rise approximately 10%, which is consistent with a nearly 8% rise in average wind capacity this summer relative to last summer. We also forecast smaller increases of approximately 5% and 1% in hydro and nuclear generation, respectively.

Coal production
Starting in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), we currently expect decreases in coal production across all producing regions through at least December 2027. Since mid-April, weekly coal production has fallen slightly below 10 million short tons (MMst) per week through the time of this publication. In comparison, weekly production for the same period in 2025 was on average 10 MMst per week. The largest declines in 2Q26 through the rest of 2026 come from the Appalachia region. Overall, we forecast total coal production in 2026 to drop slightly by 2% (10 MMst) totaling 518 MMst. Starting in 2027, the largest declines particularly in the first half of the year come from the Western region. We expect total coal production in 2027 to decline by just over 4% year over year, or 22 MMst, and total 497 MMst. We finalized the forecast before policies related to recent White House coal industry announcements were enacted.

Coal consumption
Coal consumption is mostly driven by consumption in the electric power sector. During 1Q26, coal consumption declined by 11% (13 MMst) compared with the same period last year. A warm March and April combined with lower natural gas prices have reduced the need to burn coal. We expect coal consumption to decrease by 11% in 2Q26 compared with the same period last year. We anticipate total coal consumption from the electric power sector overall this year to fall by 8% to 386 MMst. Warmer-than-normal temperatures may lead to an increase in coal consumption over the summer, especially if natural gas prices rise in tandem.

With lower coal consumption, inventory levels are expected to remain near the top of the five-year range (2021‒2025), increasing by 4% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, reducing the pressure to increase production.