Economy, weather, and CO₂

U.S. macroeconomics
To generate the macroeconomic assumptions in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we input STEO energy price forecasts into S&P Global’s Short-Term U.S. Macroeconomic Model to produce a conditional macroeconomic forecast. For more details on the macroeconomic model, see our documentation.

Emissions
We forecast U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions to decrease by 1.5% in 2026 relative to 2025 and to remain relatively flat in 2027. In 2026, decreases in CO₂ emissions primarily reflect expected declines in coal consumption and, to a lesser extent, decreases in consumption of various petroleum products, most notably motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil. Declines in coal-related emissions continue in 2027 but are offset by rising natural gas-related emissions from growth in natural gas consumption in the commercial and industrial sectors, as well as by small increases in petroleum-related emissions from higher distillate fuel oil consumption.

Weather
The United States averaged 189 heating degree days (HDDs) in October, 20% fewer HDDs than forecast in our October STEO and 14% fewer HDDs than the 10-year average for the month. Our forecast assumes the warmer weather will extend through the end of 2026, contributing to a warmer-than-average 2026–2027 winter heating season (November–March) and reducing energy use for space heating this winter. Based on our current forecasts and data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we expect the United States to average 1,331 HDDs in the fourth quarter of 2026, 8% fewer HDDs than the 10-year quarterly average. Overall, we expect an average of 3,104 HDDs this winter, 4% fewer HDDs than the previous 10-year winter average.