Upcoming enhancements of electricity supply forecasts in EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook
Beginning with the August 6, 2019, publication of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA will expand its forecasts for electricity supply in the United States and introduce new wholesale price forecasts. The STEO will include forecasts of electric power sector generation and fuel consumption for 12 electricity supply regions (Figure 1). These STEO forecast regions for the most part correspond to the electricity market and system operations areas where electricity is dispatched in the United States. Data for Hawaii and Alaska is presented as a single region. In addition, EIA will publish new forecasts of average peak-period wholesale electricity prices for each of the STEO electricity supply regions, with the exception of Hawaii and Alaska. These changes will not affect the electricity forecasts for the July 2019 STEO.
Figure 1. New STEO electricity supply modeling regions
Changes to STEO electricity data beginning in August 2019
To accommodate the expanded electricity supply forecasts, EIA will revise its presentation of electricity industry data in the STEO standard tables and associated datasets. Beginning with the August 2019 STEO, EIA will discontinue historical data and forecast values in the STEO for electricity generation for the four U.S. Census regions (Northeast, South, Midwest, and West). Instead, EIA will present data and forecasts for the 12 electricity supply regions shown in Figure 1. Retail electricity sales and prices will continue to be modeled for the 9 Census divisions.
Starting with the August 2019 publication, EIA will present all electricity-related data in the STEO tables and associated datasets in units of total kilowatthours over a given period of time (month, quarter, or year). EIA will no longer publish electricity supply and demand data in units of average kilowatthours per day. This change applies to both electricity generation and retail sales of electricity. EIA will continue to present electric generator fuel consumption data in the standard units (e.g., cubic feet per day for natural gas, total short tons for coal, etc.).
EIA will present the new wholesale price forecasts in STEO Table 7a (U.S. electricity industry overview). Retail electricity sales and retail prices in Tables 7b and 7c, respectively, will continue to be presented by Census division. The units for the retail electricity sales data in Table 7b will be measured in billion kilowatthours over the specified time period.
Tables 7d and 7e will present electric power sector generation by fuel for the new STEO modeling regions. The standard STEO tables will no longer include the Census-region fuel consumption data that is currently shown in Table 7e. Electric power fuel consumption data for the new STEO regions will be available in the STEO Data Browser. Data for U.S. fuel consumption by electric generators that are presented in other STEO tables will be unaffected. The data for renewable electricity generation in Table 8b will use units of billion kilowatthours over the given period.
Beginning in August, EIA will discontinue regional STEO forecasts of electricity generation and fuel consumption in the (combined) commercial and industrial sectors. Forecasts for U.S. (national) generation and fuel consumption in these sectors will continue to be available in the STEO Data Browser.
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